Liga Portugal 1 ( Gil Vicente vs Nacional da Madeira ) Analysis : Key Insights Gil Vicente Strengths: Strong defensive record (only 12 goals conceded). Excellent head-to-head dominance over Nacional. Home advantage at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos (50% win rate at home). Nacional Weaknesses: Poor away form (only 23% win rate). Conceding 26 goals in 17 matches, one of the weaker defenses. Inconsistent recent form with multiple losses. Win Probability: Gil Vicente ~44.8%, Draw ~28.1%, Nacional ~27.0%. Over 2.5 Goals: Likely, given both teams average above 1 goal per match and Nacionals leaky defense. Best Value Bet: Gil Vicente win or Gil Vicente win + Over 2.5 goals. Gil Vicentes recent form shows many draws (five in a row), so a stalemate is possible.